Investment
Editor’s Note * AI constraints are becoming tangible, not theoretical. The “bits to atoms” narrative isn’t new, but what is new is the data confirming real bottlenecks. With hyperscalers guiding toward roughly $700B in cumulative 2026 capex, investors are no longer debating model potential. They are asking whether there
Investment
Editor’s Note * AI is no longer one trade. It is a split screen. In the U.S., capital is clearly rotating from traditional SaaS into what I think of as “Level 2 infrastructure” — power, cooling, networking, and storage. Names like Constellation Energy, Vertiv, and Arista Networks are being treated
Investment
Editor’s Notes * We are watching a quiet power shift inside AI. The “zero-cost oligopoly” dynamic, where giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google recycle cloud profits into equity stakes in labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, feels like a modern Standard Oil moment. But the massive AMD–Meta deal signals
Investment
Editor’s Note * Policy risk is back at the center of the tape. The Supreme Court relief rally was short-lived before a fresh 15% global tariff reset the narrative again. What struck me was how quickly this moved from a “retail headline” to a full supply chain repricing, hitting everything
Investment
Editor’s Note * The U.S. macro backdrop is getting more complicated, not clearer. Slowing growth alongside sticky inflation is putting the Fed in what feels like a genuine stagflation trap, and policy optionality is narrowing. At the same time, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Some sectors saw reversals in sentiment due to macro: (a) high interest rates and a cooling luxury market continued to weigh on homebuilders and high-end furniture retailers (RH, LEN), (b) concerns over rising fuel costs, combined with severe winter weather ("Winter Storm Fern") and
Investment
Editor's Notes: * With permanent SaaS rerating possible and earnings expectations super high to justify multiples in the US, money is flowing to companies with high 2026 certainty and low valuation multiples. This is a time for bottom-up independent thinking, as there is no consensus yet how AI / geopolitics
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Stocks tend to become overbought or oversold when liquidity shifts. The ongoing rotation away from SaaS and high-multiple US equities will inevitably push up the price of some assets (e.g. Costco / Walmart way too expensive?) while providing bargain-hunting opportunities. Not all SaaS will lose favor—
Investment
Editor’s Note * We are living through an “AI Paradox.” The market is no longer rewarding “AI exposure” broadly. It is rewarding the landlords of the ecosystem. Chips, power, cooling, nuclear baseload, memory supply. Names like Applied Materials and Constellation Energy are being treated as essential infrastructure, while parts of
Investment
Editor’s Note * We are clearly in Phase Two of the AI cycle. The easy money phase is over. The market is now separating true infrastructure “Landlords” from vulnerable workflow tools, and rewarding companies that control data, distribution, and renewal rates. Nearly $700 billion in projected AI capex sounds impressive,
Investment
Editor’s Note * The credibility question is no longer fringe. With national debt compounding at a historic pace and interest expense crowding out core spending, investors are starting to price in a world where multiples compress not because of recession, but because of trust and funding costs. This is subtle,
Investment
Editor’s Note * Japan’s “Takaichi Bump” is real, but no longer forgiving. Optimism around policy continuity and corporate restructuring continues to support the market, yet valuation discipline is creeping back in. Elevated PBR levels and sharper currency moves are a reminder that this phase of the Japan trade is