Investment
Editor's Notes * The sudden drop in oil prices is masking the fact that this market melt-up is heavily engineered by CTA algorithmic buying. With over $86 billion blindly chasing the tape this week, the easiest way to play the geopolitical relief isn't buying the expensive broader
Investment
Editor's Notes * The US market is telling two different stories right now. Tech infrastructure spending is booming, but $94 oil and rising "buy now, pay later" usage show everyday consumers are hurting. It raises a tough question: if consumer spending finally breaks, are enterprise IT budgets
Investment
Editor's Notes * The current market exhibits "conflicted bullishness" where major indices, notably the S&P 500, approach all-time highs driven by AI infrastructure investments, despite geopolitical tensions. This resilience indicates a market decoupled from traditional macro-geopolitical concerns, presenting frustration for bearish institutional investors. * The quiet
Investment
Editor's Notes * The recent off grid power agreement between Bloom Energy and Oracle signals that tech giants are realizing the traditional electrical grid cannot support their needs. This shift makes power generation and utilities a fundamental infrastructure investment rather than just a defensive harbor. * Japanese chemical and printing
Investment
Editor's Notes * The initial concerns about AI replacing software companies appear to be easing. Industry leaders like Salesforce are adapting by shifting from traditional subscriptions to outcome based pricing, which is helping to draw capital back into the software sector. It seems the market is realizing that evolving
Investment
Editor's Notes * We are seeing a violent transition from AI optimism to software cannibalization as the market continue to price in the threat of "seat compression." The fear is that agentic tools like "Claude Mythos" will autonomously handle tasks that used to require dozens
Investment
Editor's Notes * Keep an eye on the stealth "backdoor" AI bets that the market noise is currently drowning out. Zoom is effectively a call option on Anthropic's success, while Datadog is decoupling from the SaaS crash because autonomous agents actually require more infrastructure monitoring,
Investment
Editor's Notes * The ceasefire has completely flipped the macro script, shifting us from a stagflation scare to a massive, margin-boosting drop in oil. Since retail sentiment is still stuck in neutral, this short squeeze likely has more room to run before institutional desks start looking for an exit.
Investment
Editor's Notes * The Strait of Hormuz "blockade" looks like a headline scare rather than a physical reality, as real-time trackers show ships are still moving. With hedge funds sitting on a record 7.6:1 short ratio, any hint of de-escalation will likely trigger a massive
Investment
Editor's Notes * The AI growth story might be hitting an analog wall as electrical infrastructure replaces chip supply as the primary bottleneck. With nearly half of planned US data centers delayed by shortages in transformers and switchgears, the physical grid simply cannot keep pace with silicon production. * The
Investment
Editor's Notes: * US and HK markets were closed for Good Friday. Today's letter provides mainly an update on Japan. * Nidec had a good day (+4%). We profiled the company in mid-Dec and still think there's good upside from here, with hopefully more positive governance
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Geopolitics, liquidity, and risk appetite continue to dominate the market, leading to a short-term de-emphasis on fundamentals. This could be a good opportunity for stock picking if you have conviction and patience, or a time to de-risk by lowering your portfolio exposure. We have heard from