Investment
Editor's Notes * The reported clearing of H200 chip sales for Chinese tech leaders is the biggest narrative shift we've seen in months. It effectively kills the "AI isolation" thesis and gives Alibaba the room it needs to finish its pivot into a dominant infrastructure
Investment
Editor's Notes * Two of China’s most important tech heavyweights reported yesterday, and it offered a perfect study in contrast. Alibaba’s stock rally in the face of a massive earnings miss proves that the market is currently valuing top-line AI growth over bottom-line safety. Even with a
Investment
Editor's Notes * The upcoming Samsung union strike is a tactical window for Micron, even as the sector nears its cycle peak. With a shutdown planned from May 21 through early June, the already strained supply of high bandwidth memory is likely to face a further squeeze. Since SK
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Birkenstock (BIRK) is reporting earnings today (May 13), and it is a great test case for the "premium consumer" trade. While many retailers are struggling, Birkenstock is benefiting from the easing of 2025 tariff pressures and potential tax refunds. With Michael Burry involved and
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Two ideas jumped out to me today. Uber is successfully turning autonomous vehicles into a supply source rather than a competitor. By partnering with Waymo, Zoox, and Rivian, they are ensuring that regardless of who builds the best car, the manufacturer still needs Uber’s network
Investment
Editor's Notes * JD.com (May 12) is a key barometer for the stability of Chinese consumer spending. While management’s recent move to raise the dividend to $1.00 shows a commitment to returning capital, the focus remains on whether core retail growth can hold steady, even as
Investment
Editor's Notes * Yesterday we flagged Rocket Lab (RKLB) as the only viable Western competitor to SpaceX, and the recent 34% surge confirms the "launch duopoly" thesis is sticking. With Blue Origin and ULA essentially stalled, RKLB’s Neutron vehicle is the only real threat to Musk’
Investment
Editor's Notes: * While we mentioned in today’s newsletter that many analysts seem to be pricing in a "perpetual supercycle" for the memory sector, the cold math of our cycle analysis suggests we are much closer to the edge, with a 90% cycle fraction already elapsed
Investment
Editor's Notes * We’re witnessing a fundamental re-classification of the memory sector. The street is no longer trading Micron and its peers as boom-bust commodity stocks, but as essential utilities for the AI data center. With mandatory refresh cycles replacing discretionary consumer demand, analysts are pricing in a
Investment
Editor's Notes * The biggest threat to the chip sector isn't a competitor; it's the customer. Amazon’s internal AI silicon, Trainium and Inferentia, is reportedly already scaling faster than AMD’s entire AI business. If the biggest hyperscale buyers successfully bypass the open market
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Data center server density is now so high that advanced liquid cooling is mandatory, making water the next critical bottleneck. The next uncrowded "picks and shovels" trade might be in desalination and water tech. Powering LLMs doesn't matter if you can'
Investment
Editor's Notes: * One interesting idea from the recent earnings is the (mis)pricing of big pharma patent cliffs right now. Take Bristol-Myers Squibb as an example. The market is so terrified of its impending 2028 exclusivity cliff for blockbusters like Opdivo and Eliquis that it has punished the