Editor's Notes: * As mentioned in the last daily brief newsletter, Revvity saw a 6%+ stock price jump yesterday, due to strong guidance and upward revision for 2025. * There are a few things to like about the current setup - (1) bad news are mostly priced in (China headwind), (2)
* Every market seems to be now dominated by policies and politics. I learnt from my 20 year career that policies are extremely difficult to predict, esp. in China and now US under Trump. For short-term investments, these policy-driven waves may be great profit making opportunities. For long-term
Editor's Notes: * As investors start to reassess US risks and AI-related debates continuing, I expect to see more volatility for US stocks this year. * China stocks are back on my watchlist, as there is an increasing chance of consumption stabilization and a clear sign of sentiment recovery
Editor's Notes: * Below is a synthesis from 86 episodes of podcasts over the last 7 days. * New geopolitical order (or Trump) and AI dominate discussions. * Risk is rising - for regional conflicts, central bank politically-driven errors, tariff uncertainties, speed / magnitude of AI impact on job markets and populist
Editor's Notes: * Early January is quieter in terms of earnings. This past week, we saw a few Japanese and US consumers companies confirming interesting consumer trends - value ranked above convenience (decline of convenience stores) in Japan, legacy super stores revitalized after reforms, China weakness, and US K-shape
Editor’s Notes * A quick follow-up to our earlier work on Komatsu. A few days ago we laid out a profile on Komatsu itself. Today’s exercise is stepping one layer out and listening to what its competitors and suppliers are telling us. In my experience, this kind of
Investment
Editor's Notes: * We’re watching AI grow up in real time, and the market is finally paying for the “picks and shovels.” The conversation is shifting from chips to the grid, and Meta’s 20-year nuclear deals are the cleanest signal yet that power is the next
Editor’s Notes * My read this morning: the market still wants to own AI, but the psychology is shifting. You can feel the skepticism creeping in, especially around the “AI debt bubble” talk and the sense that we’re paying premium multiples for stories that haven’t fully shown up
Editor's Notes: * Akeso recently saw a big price jump due to a significant label update in China for one of its flagship products. Its robust R&D track record (impressive breakthrough with efficacy outperforming Merck's $30B blockbuster + inclusion of all 5 self-developed drugs in
Editor’s Notes * AI enthusiasm hasn’t cracked—but the cracks are being actively debated. On one hand, Nvidia and the broader AI stack (memory, storage, chips) still feel like the market’s gravitational center; on the other, the “AI bubble vs. new paradigm” argument is getting louder as valuations
Investment
Editor's Notes * Upcycle for metals & mining and industrial capex for supply chain migration can be beneficial tailwind for Komatsu. * Komatsu trades at a significant discount to CAT (peak valuation level), Deere, and Hitachi, with ~7% FCF yield, around 3-year mid point. While tariff impacts, regional exposure
Investment
Editor's Notes: * AI is still the whole story in the U.S.—and that’s both the bull case and the risk. Nvidia’s CES push (Vera Rubin + “physical AI”) keeps extending the narrative, but the fact that the Magnificent 7 drove the majority of S&P